Prof Kjell Aleklett heads the Global Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala, and he is President of ASPO-International.  He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production.  He was in Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.

A highlight was the SmartConference workshop,(details below)

Sydney Morning Herald article  "Highly vulnerable to oil shortages"  (11th June)

Media alert here Media contacts welcome via Bruce Robinson 0427 398 708
( or Bruce dot Robinson at ASPO-Australia dot org dot Au )

His plenary lecture was entitled "Future Transportation Fuels:  Business-as-usual is not an option" (download)

University of Adelaide public seminars:  10 am June 5th ,   and  5pm June 5th   

Canberra June 9th. Departmental briefing at BITRE (download ) and a public Senate committee inquiry hearing (investment in public transport) download , Hansard transcript

Recent papers and articles from Prof Aleklett and the Global Energy System group

IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate.  Platts Conference, Geneva 28th May 2008

Peak-Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries:
Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries  (actual OECD PDF version)
European Conference of Ministers of Transport,
Joint OECD/ECMT Transport Research Centre      September 2007

Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Abstract of paper to be presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences international energy symposium, Energy2050, to be held on 19-20 October 2009

Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Mikael Höök, Robert Hirsch & Kjell Aleklet  Energy Policy, June 2009, 2262-2272

Oil production limits mean opportunities, conservation 
Oil & Gas Journal  21st August 2006
In the face of looming oil production shortfalls, all individuals as well as nations as a whole will have to use less oil. And now is the time to begin developing programs accommodating the need for less oil. The coming shortage could provide excellent opportunities for those able to identify them and act strategically.

Mikael Höök (completing a PhD with the Global Energy Systems Group) gave a valuable presentation to the "Managing Risks in Oil and Gas Exploration Forum", Amsterdam, 4th June. 

The Senate inquiry into Public Transport has been holding hearings around Australia.
Details of the inquiry, lists of submissions on the Senate website etc here.
ASPO-Australia made a main submission, one from ASPO-Sydney and one from the Defence and Security working group.  We were invited to appear at the Perth hearing (Hansard)
As well there were individual submissions from Dave Kilsby, Garry Glazebrook, Alan Parker and Matt Mushalik (with the prize for the biggest submission, 18MB), and from the Cycling Promotion Fund and Prof. Peter Newman amongst the 142 published so far

Download the full report: Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure: Submission to Infrastructure Australia.

The Executive Summary is reprinted below.

Executive Summary

Executive Summary: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2008/WEO2008_es_English.pdf

Key graphics: http://www.iea.org/weo/key_graphs_08/WEO_2008_Key_Graphs.pdf

Press release: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275 .

As a result of all the leaks and pre-release publicity, the actual release has not attracted as much notice as it deserves. 

The New York TImes had covered the pre-release of the Executive Summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 :
The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world’s top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.

The IEA asked us (10th November) to remove our copy of the Executive Summary which was released on Thursday 6th November but not made publicly available in spite of media reports to the contrary. The formal release for the full report was Wed 12th November (links above)

Jeremy Gilbert, previously Chief Petroleum Engineer for BP worldwide, visited Australia.  He gave a presentation to the Municipal Association of Victoria, (1st October) and the keynote address to the Fuelling Food conference at the University of Western Australia (3rd October).  He gave a seminar at UWA on 6th October, "Reserves Growth, the Myth in the Peak Oil Debate".

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ASPO-Australia has written to Prof Garnaut, suggesting that much more consideration be given to oil depletion in the lead-up to the 2009 Copenhagen conference.

The purpose of this letter is to draw your attention to growing acceptance of oil depletion in the scientific community and even by the IEA in its revision of the energy forecasts and emissions scenarios in the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2008, a document intended in large part to inform negotiations in Copenhagen. Our view is that this will substantially improve the prospects for an effective agreement around a target atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 450ppm."

The full detailed letter to Garnaut (written by Stuart McCarthy in Brisbane) is available here.

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Pedro Prieto, of ASPO-Spain, has written to say the final program of the seventh ASPO conference is available at  www.ASPO-Spain.org/ASPO-7  20th-21st October 2008

The theme of the conference is "From below ground to above ground" and more detailed information is available from the conference website above, and in the letter from Pedro Prieto below

 Peak oil - the trigger for global sustainability Ian Dunlop, Deputy Convenor, ASPO-Australia, (etc) ABC Radio "Ockham's Razor" presentation 27th July.  Transcript and Audio available
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2008/2313512.htm#transcript

Future oil shortages prominent in Customs forward planning document.
Main Trends to 2015   Availability of oil and oil-based fuels will become a critical issue http://www.customs.gov.au/webdata/resources/files/strategic_outlook.pdf
 

The Sydney Morning Herald, one of the nation's leading papers, sums it up in a perceptive cartoon  

   CSIRO Future Fuels Forum released its report "Fuel for thought - The future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities" at GM Holden, Melbourne on 11th July 2008.

Media coverage naturally focussed on the $8/litre scenario, examples below
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/11/2300646.htm
www.smh.com.au/news/national/petrol-to-hit-8-a-litre/2008/07/10/1215658037458.html
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24002278-5017313,00.html
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=496960
Phil Hart on ABC Stateline, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk1HyUnZAgk

ASPO-Australia contacts for further comment, if needed
Phil Hart  0438 037 567
Convenor, Bruce Robinson  0427 398 708   08-9384-7409, Perth
Sydney      David Bell,   0413 594 154   Ian Dunlop  0412 586 798
Brisbane    Stuart McCarthy  0447 095 141
Adelaide    Sam Powrie  0414 307 413

Preparing for the Petrol Droughts. An evidence-based approach
Peak Oil, and what we can do, a review.  Bruce Robinson 11th July 2008
    Global oil production is quite likely to halve by 2030, with the decline possibly starting very soon.  A Federal Office of Oil Vulnerability and a National Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy (as being prepared in Queensland) are essential urgent first steps for Australia.  We need to collect and analyse the evidence on which to base future policies to reduce our oil vulnerability across all portfolios.

ASPO Australia spokesperson Phil Hart gave this speech at the launch of the report:

The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil congratulates CSIRO for leading the Future Fuels Forum and thanks all the participants for the constructive dialogue that led to this final report. We have all learnt new things along the way. I have been personally encouraged to hear of the many changes businesses have been making – there are more pro-active changes under way than even I realised.

2007 began with oil prices falling back to near $50 a barrel – because the speculators got it wrong. Many forum participants would have choked on a prediction of $8/litre early last year, but tight supply and the rapid increase in prices since then have given them courage to accept these dramatic model outcomes now. No one can know the precise future of oil prices, but such high figures reflect how hard it is to transform our cities and economies built on cheap oil when we are faced with declining oil production.

ASPO is concerned that the threats that Peak Oil poses are being systematically ignored and there will be chaos if oil shortages hit Australia.  We should plan well ahead for petrol droughts and oil crises, just as we do for cyclones and bushfires.  Oil vulnerability assessment should be a routine risk management feature, not a rarity.  The most probable date for Peak Oil is 2012 (+/- 5 years)

ABARE's determined forecasts of falling oil prices have been consistently wrong for five years, as it is geological limits that control oil production not economics.  Economists do not realise that geological forces are more powerful than market forces.  A random number generator would perform better than ABARE's forecasters.  See graph at www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/abare-mar-08.jpg

Transcript of an address given March 4 to the Brisbane Institute by the Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

I’d like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather this evening.

I want to thank the Board of the Brisbane Institute for the invitation to address this gathering.

Tonight I want to talk about capital S Sustainability.

By that I don’t mean the usual narrow environmental concept of sustainability in agricultural production and land use.

I mean the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the structure of our cities, their energy and water sources and demand profiles; the treatment of these sources of our wealth; the imminent peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and coal; and the way we dispose of those resources when we’re finished with them.

I will begin by considering what sustainability means to me.

Ms NOLAN (Ipswich—ALP):

On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the serious challenge of sustainability.

Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation adjusted terms.