ASPO is concerned that the threats that Peak Oil poses are being systematically ignored and there will be chaos if oil shortages hit Australia.  We should plan well ahead for petrol droughts and oil crises, just as we do for cyclones and bushfires.  Oil vulnerability assessment should be a routine risk management feature, not a rarity.  The most probable date for Peak Oil is 2012 (+/- 5 years)

ABARE's determined forecasts of falling oil prices have been consistently wrong for five years, as it is geological limits that control oil production not economics.  Economists do not realise that geological forces are more powerful than market forces.  A random number generator would perform better than ABARE's forecasters.  See graph at www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/abare-mar-08.jpg

Transcript of an address given March 4 to the Brisbane Institute by the Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

I’d like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather this evening.

I want to thank the Board of the Brisbane Institute for the invitation to address this gathering.

Tonight I want to talk about capital S Sustainability.

By that I don’t mean the usual narrow environmental concept of sustainability in agricultural production and land use.

I mean the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the structure of our cities, their energy and water sources and demand profiles; the treatment of these sources of our wealth; the imminent peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and coal; and the way we dispose of those resources when we’re finished with them.

I will begin by considering what sustainability means to me.

Ms NOLAN (Ipswich—ALP):

On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the serious challenge of sustainability.

Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation adjusted terms.

Sydney and other cities should be preparing now for future oil shortages, Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia, said today.   Peak Oil is the time when global oil production will start its unavoidable decline. This may be happening now, but a more likely date is in 2012 or so (+/- 5 years). Cities which prepare well in advance for oil shortages will have big advantages over those which ignore the risks till it is too late.  The Queensland Government is preparing an Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy, one of the recommendations of its Taskforce which reported in April 2007.  Mr Robinson called on the Federal and NSW Governments to collaborate in assessing the risks oil shortages will bring. We must start serious steps to reduce our automobile dependence before the oil shocks hit.

Sydney Morning Herald , The Age and Courier Mail on-line articles resulting from the news conference held at Parliament House, Sydney, with Lee Rhiannon, Monday 17th March.

It has been a good week for peak oil in Australian politics. Andrew MacNamara (ASPO Australia Patron) launched a peak oil policy in Queensland, and Australian Democrat Sandra Kanck proposed a 'peak oil select committee' in the South Australian Legislative Council (although ASPO Australia fears for the motion's chance of success - write to your local member if you're in SA!).

Now, we have our first positive mention of peak oil by a Member of the House of Representatives, with a new MP shining a light for his new Federal Labor Government. With the Green Senators leading the campaign in the Senate, we now have at least positive indications from three of the four main parties.

Below is the relevant extract from Mike Kelly's speech. ASPO Australia welcomes this contribution to Federal Parliament.

Preparing for the Petrol Droughts

Short-term and long-term oil shortages are quite likely in the near future. 

We should prepare in case they do come.  When there is a water shortage, we do not let the market allocate this vital resource.  We have restrictions, regulations and community campaigns to reduce consumption.

People with disabilities, farmers, people in outer suburbs, and those with important jobs, like hospital shift workers, should receive higher fuel allocations than those from leafy inner suburbs close to public transport.

Like water pricing, a basic minimum allowance should be cheap, and additional fuel should be available at increasingly higher prices.  Those who are frugal could sell their unused entitlements electronically to those who need more than average.

Bruce Robinson, Convenor

• Oil supply summary
• Oil & Gas Industry Working Group
• Biofuels Working Group
• Indigenous Working Group
• Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Working Group
• Finance and Economics Sector Working Group
• Urban and Transport Planning Working Group
• Social Services Sector Working Group
• Active Transport Working Group
• Construction Industry Working Group
• Health Sector Working Group
• Health Sector working group, supplementary submission
• Lack of Reliability of ABARE's future oil price forecasts
• Defence and Security working group