Executive Summary: http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2008/WEO2008_es_English.pdf

Key graphics: http://www.iea.org/weo/key_graphs_08/WEO_2008_Key_Graphs.pdf

Press release: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275 .

As a result of all the leaks and pre-release publicity, the actual release has not attracted as much notice as it deserves. 

The New York TImes had covered the pre-release of the Executive Summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 :
The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world’s top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.

The IEA asked us (10th November) to remove our copy of the Executive Summary which was released on Thursday 6th November but not made publicly available in spite of media reports to the contrary. The formal release for the full report was Wed 12th November (links above)

Jeremy Gilbert, previously Chief Petroleum Engineer for BP worldwide, visited Australia.  He gave a presentation to the Municipal Association of Victoria, (1st October) and the keynote address to the Fuelling Food conference at the University of Western Australia (3rd October).  He gave a seminar at UWA on 6th October, "Reserves Growth, the Myth in the Peak Oil Debate".

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ASPO-Australia has written to Prof Garnaut, suggesting that much more consideration be given to oil depletion in the lead-up to the 2009 Copenhagen conference.

The purpose of this letter is to draw your attention to growing acceptance of oil depletion in the scientific community and even by the IEA in its revision of the energy forecasts and emissions scenarios in the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2008, a document intended in large part to inform negotiations in Copenhagen. Our view is that this will substantially improve the prospects for an effective agreement around a target atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 450ppm."

The full detailed letter to Garnaut (written by Stuart McCarthy in Brisbane) is available here.

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Pedro Prieto, of ASPO-Spain, has written to say the final program of the seventh ASPO conference is available at  www.ASPO-Spain.org/ASPO-7  20th-21st October 2008

The theme of the conference is "From below ground to above ground" and more detailed information is available from the conference website above, and in the letter from Pedro Prieto below

 Peak oil - the trigger for global sustainability Ian Dunlop, Deputy Convenor, ASPO-Australia, (etc) ABC Radio "Ockham's Razor" presentation 27th July.  Transcript and Audio available
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2008/2313512.htm#transcript

Future oil shortages prominent in Customs forward planning document.
Main Trends to 2015   Availability of oil and oil-based fuels will become a critical issue http://www.customs.gov.au/webdata/resources/files/strategic_outlook.pdf
 

The Sydney Morning Herald, one of the nation's leading papers, sums it up in a perceptive cartoon  

   CSIRO Future Fuels Forum released its report "Fuel for thought - The future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities" at GM Holden, Melbourne on 11th July 2008.

Media coverage naturally focussed on the $8/litre scenario, examples below
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/11/2300646.htm
www.smh.com.au/news/national/petrol-to-hit-8-a-litre/2008/07/10/1215658037458.html
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24002278-5017313,00.html
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=496960
Phil Hart on ABC Stateline, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk1HyUnZAgk

ASPO-Australia contacts for further comment, if needed
Phil Hart  0438 037 567
Convenor, Bruce Robinson  0427 398 708   08-9384-7409, Perth
Sydney      David Bell,   0413 594 154   Ian Dunlop  0412 586 798
Brisbane    Stuart McCarthy  0447 095 141
Adelaide    Sam Powrie  0414 307 413

Preparing for the Petrol Droughts. An evidence-based approach
Peak Oil, and what we can do, a review.  Bruce Robinson 11th July 2008
    Global oil production is quite likely to halve by 2030, with the decline possibly starting very soon.  A Federal Office of Oil Vulnerability and a National Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy (as being prepared in Queensland) are essential urgent first steps for Australia.  We need to collect and analyse the evidence on which to base future policies to reduce our oil vulnerability across all portfolios.

ASPO Australia spokesperson Phil Hart gave this speech at the launch of the report:

The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil congratulates CSIRO for leading the Future Fuels Forum and thanks all the participants for the constructive dialogue that led to this final report. We have all learnt new things along the way. I have been personally encouraged to hear of the many changes businesses have been making – there are more pro-active changes under way than even I realised.

2007 began with oil prices falling back to near $50 a barrel – because the speculators got it wrong. Many forum participants would have choked on a prediction of $8/litre early last year, but tight supply and the rapid increase in prices since then have given them courage to accept these dramatic model outcomes now. No one can know the precise future of oil prices, but such high figures reflect how hard it is to transform our cities and economies built on cheap oil when we are faced with declining oil production.

ASPO is concerned that the threats that Peak Oil poses are being systematically ignored and there will be chaos if oil shortages hit Australia.  We should plan well ahead for petrol droughts and oil crises, just as we do for cyclones and bushfires.  Oil vulnerability assessment should be a routine risk management feature, not a rarity.  The most probable date for Peak Oil is 2012 (+/- 5 years)

ABARE's determined forecasts of falling oil prices have been consistently wrong for five years, as it is geological limits that control oil production not economics.  Economists do not realise that geological forces are more powerful than market forces.  A random number generator would perform better than ABARE's forecasters.  See graph at www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/abare-mar-08.jpg

Transcript of an address given March 4 to the Brisbane Institute by the Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

I’d like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather this evening.

I want to thank the Board of the Brisbane Institute for the invitation to address this gathering.

Tonight I want to talk about capital S Sustainability.

By that I don’t mean the usual narrow environmental concept of sustainability in agricultural production and land use.

I mean the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the structure of our cities, their energy and water sources and demand profiles; the treatment of these sources of our wealth; the imminent peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and coal; and the way we dispose of those resources when we’re finished with them.

I will begin by considering what sustainability means to me.

Ms NOLAN (Ipswich—ALP):

On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the serious challenge of sustainability.

Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation adjusted terms.

Sydney and other cities should be preparing now for future oil shortages, Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia, said today.   Peak Oil is the time when global oil production will start its unavoidable decline. This may be happening now, but a more likely date is in 2012 or so (+/- 5 years). Cities which prepare well in advance for oil shortages will have big advantages over those which ignore the risks till it is too late.  The Queensland Government is preparing an Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy, one of the recommendations of its Taskforce which reported in April 2007.  Mr Robinson called on the Federal and NSW Governments to collaborate in assessing the risks oil shortages will bring. We must start serious steps to reduce our automobile dependence before the oil shocks hit.

Sydney Morning Herald , The Age and Courier Mail on-line articles resulting from the news conference held at Parliament House, Sydney, with Lee Rhiannon, Monday 17th March.

It has been a good week for peak oil in Australian politics. Andrew MacNamara (ASPO Australia Patron) launched a peak oil policy in Queensland, and Australian Democrat Sandra Kanck proposed a 'peak oil select committee' in the South Australian Legislative Council (although ASPO Australia fears for the motion's chance of success - write to your local member if you're in SA!).

Now, we have our first positive mention of peak oil by a Member of the House of Representatives, with a new MP shining a light for his new Federal Labor Government. With the Green Senators leading the campaign in the Senate, we now have at least positive indications from three of the four main parties.

Below is the relevant extract from Mike Kelly's speech. ASPO Australia welcomes this contribution to Federal Parliament.

Preparing for the Petrol Droughts

Short-term and long-term oil shortages are quite likely in the near future. 

We should prepare in case they do come.  When there is a water shortage, we do not let the market allocate this vital resource.  We have restrictions, regulations and community campaigns to reduce consumption.

People with disabilities, farmers, people in outer suburbs, and those with important jobs, like hospital shift workers, should receive higher fuel allocations than those from leafy inner suburbs close to public transport.

Like water pricing, a basic minimum allowance should be cheap, and additional fuel should be available at increasingly higher prices.  Those who are frugal could sell their unused entitlements electronically to those who need more than average.

Bruce Robinson, Convenor