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The following is a bibliography of papers on oil depletion and its consequences. Most of these documents are available from this site - just click on the title.
Akehurst, J (2002) World Oil Markets and the Challenges for Australia Woodside Energy's Managing Director's presentation to ABARE Outlook 2002. Canberra 6-March-2002.
A Clear statement by the then CEO of Australia's major oil company of Australia's oil depletion trends to major economic conference in Canberra, March 2002, giving Geoscience Australia data, self-sufficiency declines, trade deficit implications.
"There are four options for avoiding or reducing the impact of declining oil self sufficiency. 1. Explore more, 2. Increase Recovery, 3. Increase fuel substitution, 4. Reduce liquid fuels demand".
Naturally Woodside concentrate on 1 and 2 and ask for more government support.
APPEA (2002) A Crude Oil Development Strategy for Australia Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
APPEA (2004) Potential Crude Oil and Condensate Supply and Demand Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
ASPO (2002) Statistical Review of World Oil and Gas, Association for the Study of Peak Oil, first edition, Proc. 1st Intl Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweden , Eds. Aleklett, K. and Campbell, C. www.peakoil.net/IWOOD2002/ASPO/ASPO-Stat-Rev.html Files ASPO-Stat Rev * in directory ASPO Statistical Review of World Oil & Gas
ASPO (2004) The general depletion picture. Oil and gas liquids, 2004 scenario Newsletter 44, July 2004, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. www.PeakOil.net Files in directory: ASPO newsletters
Australian Energy News (2001) Oil Production Curve cause for concern. Dec 2001, p30, 31 & 49. Review of Les Magoon's "Are we running out of oil?", invited presentation to the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia, Canberra, 4th November 2001 AEN is published by the Australian Department of Industry Tourism and Resources. Copy at www.energiekrise.de/e/index.html
Bakhtiari, A M Samsam (2003) Middle East oil production to peak within next decade
Oil & Gas Journal, 101 (26) July 7th 2003
Bakhtiari, A M Samsam (2004) World oil production capacity model suggests output peak by 2006-07, Oil & Gas Journal, 102 (16) April 26th 2004
Bardi, Ugo (2004) Peak Oil 2004 - Run for your life or do nothing? - An article by ASPO-italia member Ugo Bardi, giving an outline of the Hubberts Peak theory of oil depletion (both it's strengths and limitations) and describing the way that responses to it are influenced in part by emotional factors.
Fleay, B J (1995) Decline of the Age of Oil: Petrol politics, Australia's road ahead. Pluto Press, Australia Ltd, Annandale, NSW
Brian Fleay is based in Perth, and has led the study of Peak Oil in Australia for more than a decade. He is a foundation member of the ASPO-Australia committee, and was presented the Sustainable Transport Individual Award in Dec 2005 by WA Minister for Planning and Infrastructure, Alannah MacTiernan
Fleay, B J (1998) Climaxing Oil: How will Transport Adapt? Proc. Chartered Institute of Transport in Australia National Symposium, Launceston Tasmania 6-7 November 1998
Fleay, B J (2005) How much transport to get cereal to the breakfast table?
Car trips by customers to supermarkets dominate the transport task in getting foodstuffs from farms to households, even when the product is transported from one side of the continent to the other.
Fleay, B J (2005) Energy Quality and Economic Effectiveness
All fuels are equal, but some are more equal than others. Update of 2003 paper
Fleay, B J (2006) Australian Liquid Biofuels National Production Boundaries
Abstract: This paper compares the energy content of ethanol derived from Australia’s annual production of sugar and wheat with the energy content of annual consumption of auto gasoline, auto diesel and primary oil. It demonstrates the energy content of anhydrous ethanol from sugar and wheat would be a small fraction of the energy content of annual consumption of petroleum-based fuels. While anhydrous ethanol from biomass is technically viable as a transport fuel it cannot be produced on a scale that replaces current petroleum products. It is not remotely possible to divert much of these agricultural products to fuel production at the expense of food supply.
Fleay, B J, (2006) European Natural Gas - The Global Context
Fleay, B J, (2007) Natural Gas: "Magic Pudding" or depleting resource. Australian natural gas prospects and policies. Update of the 2002 paper.
Fleay, B J, (2007) Rising natural Gas Prices and Electricity in WA- How rising natural gas prices will affect electricity supplies in WA.
Harper, Francis (BP) (2004) Oil Peak - A Geologists View - A presentation by BP geologist Francis Harper with lots of useful facts and figures. It gives a good overview of issues which affect the production profiles including the contentious issue of reserves growth. Predicts a non-OPEC production peak in 10 years, suggests a global peak in 15 years is possible. Uses info based on the IHS database - a more reliable source than the publicly available info published in Oil and Gas journal or the BP Statistical review. Francis Harper has noted during one of his talks that the peak oil debate between "economic optimists" and "geological pessimists" is reflected in miniature inside oil companies.
Harper, Francis (2004). Oil Reserves Growth Potential (0.3 MB) Very useful presentation at ASPO-III in Berlin, outlining the factors behind reserve estimate growth, and with examples of positive and negative reserve growth from the North Sea and elsewhere, using data from Petroconsultants/IHS database to demonstrate increasing reserve estimates and some of the reasons as the data base matures.
IHS (2004) Global trends study foresees no short-term liquids output shortfall IHS refers to its own proprietry database to determine that supplies look secure up to 2008. The IHS database is a proprietry industry database of technical data, generally considered to be much more reliable that the publicly available data provided by oil companies. See also the ODAC analysis which is based on essentially the same data.
Magoon, L B (2001) Are we running out of oil?. An illustrated summary of the series of talks given by Les Magoon USGS in November 2001 to the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia, BTCE and TransScan (Perth), compiled by Bruce Robinson
McCarthy, Stuart (2007) "Oil Depletion and the new parallel runway". Submission to the Brisbane Airport Corporation
Mushalik, M (2005) How Cross City Tunnel Planners ignored Peak Oil - Historical Analysis 1998-2002. Document in several parts: Main Report, Appendices, Appendix 2, Appendix 8, Rail Tunnels, European solution.
Parker, A, (2005) If world oil production peaks before 2025 it puts the well being of all Australians at risk - Appendix from submission to the Inquiry into managing transport congestion by the Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission.
Phillips D (2006) Sustainability Imperatives and the implications of Global Peak Oil . A powerpoint presentatoin by Dr Darren Phillips of the university of Tasmania.
Powell T G (2001) Understanding Australia's petroleum resources, future production trends and the role of the frontiers. Geoscience Australia. APPEA Journal 2001, 273-287
Rice, David (2000, and 2003). $10 per Litre Petrol: A Scenario A short simple memorable illustration of what serious fuel price rises might be like. A scenario to consider, not a forecast. David is a senior transport planner and Sustainable Transport Coalition member.
Robinson, B and Powrie S (2004) Oil depletion: the crucial factor in transport planning Australasian Transport Research Forum, Adelaide, October 2004. As a result of steeply declining domestic oil production and forecasts of dwindling world supplies, Australia is very vulnerable to temporary and permanent oil shocks in the short, medium and long term. Transport planning priorities (both large scale planning and road design) must be changed dramatically to minimise the impacts of the coming oil shortages.
Robinson, B.W, Fleay, B, Mayo, S.C., (2005) Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia Abstract and powerpoint slides from the ASPO conference in Lisbon 2005.
Robinson, B W (2002) Global Oil Vulnerability and the Australian Situation Issues and background paper for the draft State Sustainability Strategy, available on the CD in the printed State Sustainability Strategy, and on the WA government website
Robinson, B W (2004) Oil Depletion and Australia - A powerpoint presentation by Bruce Robinson of the Sustainable Transport Coalition given to WA MPs. It outlines the growing awareness of the issue, raises concerns about the accuracy of world (especially Middle East) reserve estimates, and publicly available data, and described Australia's oil production situation.
Skrebowski, Chris (2004) Depletion now runningat over 1mn b/d, Petroleum Review, Aug 2004. "This year’s BP Statistical Review of World Energy once again provides a mine of information for those wishing to analyse the energy industries. Chris Skrebowski has used this year’s data to try to analyse the impact that declining production is having."
Skrebowski, Chris (2004, 2006) Oil field mega projects 2004 Petroleum Review, Jan 2004. "The future shape and prosperity of the oil industry is determined by the mega projects – those with reserves of over 500mn boe and the potential to produce over 100,000 b/d of oil. Here, Chris Skrebowski tabulates and analyses all the mega projects, as well as the key discoveries that could become mega projects at some later date."
He now publishes an annual "Megaprojects review" listing the big oil projects planned to be coming on-stream, together with an estimate of decline rates in existing producing regions. His methodology is explained separately in "MegaProjects Explained"
Megaprojects 2006
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Skrebowski/PR_APR06_Megaprojects.pdf
Simmons, M R (2002) Depletion & U.S. Energy Policy Proc. 1st Intl Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweden , Eds. Aleklett, K. and Campbell, C. External link or www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com
Simmons, M R (2004) The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle. Presentation to the Center for Strategic & International Studies Washington, D.C. February 24, 2004,
Simmons, M R (2004a) Saudi Arabian Oil: A Glass Half Full Or Half Empty?. Presentation to the Hudson Institute, Washington DC, July 9th, 2004 (or see www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com). Matt Simmons has recently written a book "Twilight in the Desert" which pieces together clues from many technical papers on Saudi oil-fields to conclude that Saudi may not have the reserves or the potential to expand production that they claim.
USGS (1998) (external link) USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 - Major study with optimistic projections for ultimately recoverable oil reserves (URR). Unusually this study attempts to estimate reserves growth as well as new discoveries. The USGS does not attempt to model the production profile but the US-EIA have used the USGS figures to generate a reassuring (if rather non-physical) production curve with a peak at 2037.
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