I have been aware for sometime that Europe was close to a decline in natural gas production. The events over the new year regarding Russian exports to Europe via Ukraine through this into sharp focus. A number of articles in the UK Petroleum Review and Petroleum Economist in February and March contained very informative articles.

Attached is a 15 p. paper I have written outlining the situation.

In essence Europe, like Nth America, is at the beginning of natural gas decline, starting with the UK now, the rest of Europe about 2010 and possibly the FSU about 2020, depending on who you believe on the size of Russian gas reserves. The UK in particular is in dire straits now.

So we have occurring more or less simultaneously the beginnings of oil's decline and likewise for the major consumers of natural gas.