LONDON
(Reuters) - Already sky-high oil prices have entered a "super spike"
phase that could last for four more years as global demand booms and
supply growth slows, Goldman Sachs analysts said Tuesday.
"We
disagree with what appears to be a growing consensus that crude oil
prices reached their peak levels earlier in 2005," said the firm's
Global Investment Research.
The
analysts said oil demand remained resilient and supply growth
lackluster, prompting them to keep their average U.S. crude price
forecast for next year unchanged at $68 a barrel.
Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $56.59 so far this year.
The group also predicted oil prices could see 1970s-style price surges to as high as $105 a barrel during this period.
"With
WTI oil prices on-track to average about $57 a barrel in 2005, we think
the past phase will be remembered as the first of what could be a
four-to-five-year 'super-spike' phase," their report said.
Goldman
Sachs first mentioned a super-spike phase in March, five months before
U.S. oil prices skyrocketed to a record $70.85 a barrel. Prices have
since eased. Supply concerns The
bank expressed doubt that OPEC producers, which supply a third of the
world's crude, would be able to quench booming demand.
"It
is the seeming insurmountable challenge of OPEC's needing to add real
new capacity on a just-in-time basis that gives us so much confidence
that we are in the super-spike phase," it said.
OPEC,
which has been pumping at the highest rate for 25 years, is set to
boost its spare capacity to 3.1 million bpd by the end of the 2006.
Despite
hurricanes, high fuel prices and increased conservation, energy
consumption in the United States remains strong, as does China and
India, the bank said.
"Ultimately,
we agree that the energy bull market will roll over once demand
destruction really begins," it said. "We simply do not believe we have
arrived at that point."
The
International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog, estimated
world oil demand could grow at an average of 1.8 million to 2.0 million
barrels per day through 2010. Last year's demand growth of 3 million
bpd was the highest for a generation.
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