Lasers or Longbows? A Paradox of Military Technology Major Cameron Leckie, Australian Defence Force Journal August 2010 (44-56)
The advantage provided by the increased complexity of a military capability increases the vulnerability of that same capability to systemic collapse due to its reliance on complex supply chains
Peak Oil is just one of the problems facing defence forces, but perhaps a critical one in that the globalisation of manufacturing and supply depends on it
Because of a number of converging threats, it appears unlikely that current levels of complexity can be maintained indefinitely. These threats are likely to present themselves as a series of ‘strategic shocks’ that will precipitate the transition from abundance to scarcity industrialism. Based on an analysis of the factors leading to this paradox, the most effective response appears to be a reduction in the complexity of military capabilities.
Peak oil is the villain governments need Using the threat of a high oil prices is a sell the public will buy into – unlike intangible arguments over climate change Guardian. 11-Aug-2010
Vale Matt Simmons: One of the great pioneers of popularising Peak Oil died August 9th 2010. Matt Simmons was a Republican investment banker who could communicate with the big end of town and advise George W Bush on energy matters. His many presentations were a valuable tool for us. They are now archived on the Ocean Energy site.
 Matt gave a paper at the first ASPO conference in Uppsala in 2002. He is pictured (right) being interviewed for Swedish TV at the time. See the Energy Bulletin tribute
Australian Financial Review "Peak Oil Threat Becomes Harder to Ignore" (full article) 13th July 2010. 
An Oil Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Plan is needed for Geraldton. See the recommendation and the background summary (July 28th 2010 ) GWN TV coverage
from the Economist, June 17th 2010
Petrol taxes should be increased each year to prepare us for Peak Oil
News release. Henry Tax Review
Proposed visit to Australia: Prof Kjell Aleklett,
Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University Oct-Dec 2010
Expressions of interest are invited to make use of Prof Aleklett's expertise infuture world oil supply scenarios and to help arrange his visit. Details here
Global downturn cushioned peak oil impact
27th April 2010 ABC News On-Line and radio("PM")
Profs. Peter Newman and Kjell Aleklett
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 Guardian 11th April 2010 • Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel soon Full US report
Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'
Sydney Morning Herald March 24, 2010
The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2010/100324.html
 Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy
London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.
Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010
Peak Oil and Public Transport. ABC TV Stateline (WA), Dec 4th 2009. Story featuring Dr Jim Buckee, past President and CEO of Talisman Energy, ASPO, public transport, WA Minister for Transport
Brisbane Courier Mail summary of Macquarie and Guardian stories below (21 November 2009)
The UK Guardian: Nov 9th 2009 The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008 by ASPO President Prof Kjell Aleklett and a team including Adelaide's Michael Lardelli
This paper details the errors in IEA analysis and their 25% overestimates of future oil production, as outlined in Prof Aleklett's tour of Australia in June. "In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts".
IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate
The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 was released in London 10th November. It offers nothing much new about oil production, and repeats the unsubstantiated claims made in WEO-2008, that are refuted clearly and simply by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (above). They do provide free the chapter from WEO-2008 about global oil field decline rates. (here)
Maribyrnong City Council’s Peak Oil Contingency Plan. A first for Australia
Peak oil expected in 2009: Macquarie
Spare capacity of 5.2 million bpd will be wiped out by 2012, Australian bank says Sep. 16, 2009 Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.
“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters. (this was covered in North America papers, but not in Australia)
The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.
Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.
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Oil Depletion Overview 
