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CERA "Peak Oil falls down" and rebuttals |
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CERA published a "decision brief" 14th Nov 2006, "WHY THE “PEAK OIL” THEORY FALLS DOWN: MYTHS, LEGENDS, AND THE FUTURE OF OIL RESOURCES". This is a copyright report, but was accompanied by a press release, which was widely reported.
A related detailed version later published by SPE-JPT (Feb2007) is available here.
There were some immediate comments, in The Oil Drum. Chris Skrebowski, of ASPO and Editor of the Petroleum Review, has now circulated an open letter to CERA's Peter Jackson. This has been well received by a lot of ASPO folk, including Roger Bezdek, Matt Simmons, Kjell Aleklett, Jeremy Leggett and Jean Laherrère so far.
CERA seem to have swung towards the far right of the probability curves, for reasons which are not clear. "why issue a press release that was a polemic? Why confuse stocks (reserves) and flows (production) as though the two were interchangeable? Why list resources that are far from commercialisation as though they could be turned on in the morning?"
Michael Smith (Energyfiles.com) has added his opinion
Energy Bulletin has an article by Tom Whipple (21-Feb-2007) about CERA's rationale.
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