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Chris Skrebowski's Megaprojects Update |
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Thursday, 22 March 2007 |
Oilfield MegaProjects UpdateChris Skrebowski visited Australia last year when he shared the results of his "Megaprojects" analysis of future oil production. Chris keeps a close tally of all the known major oil projects, most of which are announced 5 years in advance of production starting.
Chris Skrebowski's latest Megaproject update was published in February Petroleum Review and is now available online: http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MegaProjects_Feb2007.pdf (less than 100kb in size)
Chris notes a significant volume of new production being brought on stream between now and 2012 but not much beyond that. He also points out the growing development costs and lack of skilled personnel which may well cause project timelines to slip. Despite the apparent growth predicted for the near term, Chris concludes there is no cause for celebration. He writes:
It is only possible to draw two conclusions from this latest megaprojects analysis. First, data on production, project performance and depletion rates is wholly unsatisfactory, particularly for the Opec producers. Second, the large volumes of new capacity being added between 2007 and 2012 may not translate into the sort of increased produc- tion flows the world economy needs to underpin economic growth.
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