On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and
Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce
and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a
cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the
serious challenge of sustainability.
Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel
of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the
highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation
adjusted terms.
The price surge is a result of a culmination of rising demand, flat
production and falling inventories, but there is a simpler way of
describing what is happening. It is called peak oil. Peak oil advocates
have always argued that we would only recognise the peak of world oil
supply when it was passed—that is, we would only see it for sure in the
rear-vision mirror.
Well, the view in the rear-vision mirror is becoming increasingly
clear. In November 2006 the world produced 85.5 million barrels or
crude per day. No month since has surpassed that total. During 2007
world oil production declined to 84.6 million barrels per day. Around
the world, nation by nation, oil production has peaked and declined.
The USA peaked at 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 and now
produces 5.1 million barrels per day. Venezuela peaked in 1970, the UK
peaked in 1999, and Norway and Australia both peaked in 2000.
The Energy Watch Group in Germany recently analysed world data and
suggest that we are past the world’s peak. They calculate that world
supply will now decline by seven per cent per year, falling to 58
million barrels per day by 2020. There is no way known that production
of biofuels such as ethanol can plug such an enormous and growing gap.
Even putting aside the record grain prices we are already seeing as
arable land is transferred from food to fuel production the simple fact
is that there is not enough land on the planet to grow the liquid fuel
volume which we require today.
Aldous Huxley once said that ‘human beings have an almost limitless
capacity to take things for granted’. When it comes to oil and our use
of it, that is certainly true. Lester Brown in his Plan B 3.0 set out
the challenge thus—
The challenge for our generation is to build a new economy, one that
is powered largely by renewable sources of energy, that has a highly
diversified transport system and that reuses and recycles everything.
And to do it with unprecedented speed.
The Ipswich leaders’ forum set out that challenge for our community.
It is a serious challenge and one that we must all seriously pursue.
Download speech as a PDF from Rachel Nolan's website.
Oil Depletion Overview 
