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News and Articles

Recent important reports and news items

Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy
London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010

Peak Oil and Public Transport. ABC TV Stateline (WA), Dec 4th 2009. Story featuring Dr Jim Buckee, past President and CEO of Talisman Energy, ASPO, public transport, WA Minister for Transport

Brisbane Courier Mail summary of Macquarie and Guardian stories below (21 November 2009)

The UK Guardian: Nov 9th 2009 The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008 by ASPO President Prof Kjell Aleklett and a team including Adelaide's Michael Lardelli
This paper details the errors in IEA analysis and their 25% overestimates of future oil production, as outlined in Prof Aleklett's tour of Australia in June. "In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts".

IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate

The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 was released in London 10th November. It offers nothing much new about oil production, and repeats the unsubstantiated claims made in WEO-2008, that are refuted clearly and simply by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (above). They do provide free the chapter from WEO-2008 about global oil field decline rates. (here)

Peak oil expected in 2009: Macquarie
Spare capacity of 5.2 million bpd will be wiped out by 2012, Australian bank says Sep. 16, 2009 Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.
“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters. (this was covered in North America papers, but not in Australia)

Prof Kjell Aleklett heads the Global Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala, and he is President of ASPO-International. He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production. He was in Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.

A highlight was the SmartConference workshop,(details below)

Sydney Morning Herald article "Highly vulnerable to oil shortages" (11th June)

Media alert here Media contacts welcome via Bruce Robinson 0427 398 708
( or Bruce dot Robinson at ASPO-Australia dot org dot Au )

His plenary lecture was entitled "Future Transportation Fuels: Business-as-usual is not an option" (download)

University of Adelaide public seminars: 10 am June 5th , and 5pm June 5th

Canberra June 9th. Departmental briefing at BITRE (download ) and a public Senate committee inquiry hearing (investment in public transport) download , Hansard transcript

Public forum: Peak oil by 2012? Will Sydney’s transport system cope? Professor Aleklett, spoke about peak oil and forecasts for supply (download ). Dr Garry Glazebrook (UTS) outlined the transport needs of the greater Sydney region (download ) and Councillor McInerney presented transport plans for the City of Sydney (June 11th at UTS)

Recent papers and articles from Prof Aleklett and the Global Energy System group

Peak-Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries:
Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries (actual OECD PDF version)
European Conference of Ministers of Transport,
Joint OECD/ECMT Transport Research Centre September 2007

Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Abstract of paper to be presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences international energy symposium, Energy2050, to be held on 19-20 October 2009

Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Mikael Höök, Robert Hirsch & Kjell Aleklet Energy Policy, June 2009, 2262-2272

Oil production limits mean opportunities, conservation
Oil & Gas Journal 21st August 2006
In the face of looming oil production shortfalls, all individuals as well as nations as a whole will have to use less oil. And now is the time to begin developing programs accommodating the need for less oil. The coming shortage could provide excellent opportunities for those able to identify them and act strategically.

Mikael Höök (completing a PhD with the Global Energy Systems Group) gave a valuable presentation to the "Managing Risks in Oil and Gas Exploration Forum", Amsterdam, 4th June.

Senate: Public Transport (and oil supplies)

The Senate inquiry into Public Transport has been holding hearings around Australia.
Details of the inquiry, lists of submissions on the Senate website etc here.
ASPO-Australia made a main submission, one from ASPO-Sydney and one from the Defence and Security working group. We were invited to appear at the Perth hearing (Hansard)
As well there were individual submissions from Dave Kilsby, Garry Glazebrook, Alan Parker and Matt Mushalik (with the prize for the biggest submission, 18MB), and from the Cycling Promotion Fund and Prof. Peter Newman amongst the 142 published so far

Peak Oil Newsletters

ASPO Australia recommends the newsletters from the following organisations:

Sustainable Transport Coalition (WA)

The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC UK)

ASPO USA Weekly Peak Oil Review

Oilwatch Monthly (ASPO Netherlands)

Infrastructure Australia Submission

We have prepared a submission to Infrastructure Australia.

Download the full report: Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure: Submission to Infrastructure Australia.

The Executive Summary is reprinted below.

Executive Summary

World oil production is at or near its historic peak and will most likely begin to decline within several years. Net exports of oil available on the world market have probably entered a decline that will continue more steeply than the declining rate of production. Compounded by the impact of geopolitical circumstances, extreme weather events and other economic trends, the decline in oil availability will see dramatically increasing and highly volatile oil and fuel prices, oil supply shocks and impacts on economic growth, employment, demographics and transport patterns.