|
News and Articles
Lasers or Longbows? A Paradox of Military Technology Major Cameron Leckie, Australian Defence Force Journal August 2010 (44-56)
The advantage provided by the increased complexity of a military capability increases the vulnerability of that same capability to systemic collapse due to its reliance on complex supply chains
Peak Oil is just one of the problems facing defence forces, but perhaps a critical one in that the globalisation of manufacturing and supply depends on it
Because of a number of converging threats, it appears unlikely that current levels of complexity can be maintained indefinitely. These threats are likely to present themselves as a series of ‘strategic shocks’ that will precipitate the transition from abundance to scarcity industrialism. Based on an analysis of the factors leading to this paradox, the most effective response appears to be a reduction in the complexity of military capabilities.
Peak oil is the villain governments need Using the threat of a high oil prices is a sell the public will buy into – unlike intangible arguments over climate change Guardian. 11-Aug-2010
Vale Matt Simmons: One of the great pioneers of popularising Peak Oil died August 9th 2010. Matt Simmons was a Republican investment banker who could communicate with the big end of town and advise George W Bush on energy matters. His many presentations were a valuable tool for us. They are now archived on the Ocean Energy site.
 Matt gave a paper at the first ASPO conference in Uppsala in 2002. He is pictured (right) being interviewed for Swedish TV at the time. See the Energy Bulletin tribute
Australian Financial Review "Peak Oil Threat Becomes Harder to Ignore" (full article) 13th July 2010. 
An Oil Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Plan is needed for Geraldton. See the recommendation and the background summary (July 28th 2010 ) GWN TV coverage
from the Economist, June 17th 2010
Petrol taxes should be increased each year to prepare us for Peak Oil
News release. Henry Tax Review
Proposed visit to Australia: Prof Kjell Aleklett,
Global Energy Systems Group, Uppsala University Oct-Dec 2010
Expressions of interest are invited to make use of Prof Aleklett's expertise infuture world oil supply scenarios and to help arrange his visit. Details here
Global downturn cushioned peak oil impact
27th April 2010 ABC News On-Line and radio("PM")
Profs. Peter Newman and Kjell Aleklett
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 Guardian 11th April 2010 • Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel soon Full US report
Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'
Sydney Morning Herald March 24, 2010
The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2010/100324.html
 Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy
London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.
Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010
Peak Oil and Public Transport. ABC TV Stateline (WA), Dec 4th 2009. Story featuring Dr Jim Buckee, past President and CEO of Talisman Energy, ASPO, public transport, WA Minister for Transport
Brisbane Courier Mail summary of Macquarie and Guardian stories below (21 November 2009)
The UK Guardian: Nov 9th 2009 The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008 by ASPO President Prof Kjell Aleklett and a team including Adelaide's Michael Lardelli
This paper details the errors in IEA analysis and their 25% overestimates of future oil production, as outlined in Prof Aleklett's tour of Australia in June. "In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts".
IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate
The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 was released in London 10th November. It offers nothing much new about oil production, and repeats the unsubstantiated claims made in WEO-2008, that are refuted clearly and simply by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (above). They do provide free the chapter from WEO-2008 about global oil field decline rates. (here)
Maribyrnong City Council’s Peak Oil Contingency Plan. A first for Australia
Peak oil expected in 2009: Macquarie
Spare capacity of 5.2 million bpd will be wiped out by 2012, Australian bank says Sep. 16, 2009 Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.
“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters. (this was covered in North America papers, but not in Australia)
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Prof Kjell Aleklett heads the Global Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala, and he is President of ASPO-International. He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production. He was in Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.
 A highlight was the SmartConference workshop,(details below)
Sydney Morning Herald article "Highly vulnerable to oil shortages" (11th June)
Media alert here Media contacts welcome via Bruce Robinson 0427 398 708
( or Bruce dot Robinson at ASPO-Australia dot org dot Au )
His plenary lecture was entitled "Future Transportation Fuels: Business-as-usual is not an option" (download)
University of Adelaide public seminars: 10 am June 5th , and 5pm June 5th
Canberra June 9th. Departmental briefing at BITRE (download ) and a public Senate committee inquiry hearing (investment in public transport) download , Hansard transcript
Public forum: Peak oil by 2012? Will Sydney’s transport system cope? Professor Aleklett, spoke about peak oil and forecasts for supply (download ). Dr Garry Glazebrook (UTS) outlined the transport needs of the greater Sydney region (download ) and Councillor McInerney presented transport plans for the City of Sydney (June 11th at UTS)
Recent papers and articles from Prof Aleklett and the Global Energy System group
IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate. Platts Conference, Geneva 28th May 2008
Peak-Oil and the Evolving Strategies of Oil Importing and Exporting Countries:
Facing the hard truth about an import decline for the OECD countries (actual OECD PDF version)
European Conference of Ministers of Transport,
Joint OECD/ECMT Transport Research Centre September 2007
Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Abstract of paper to be presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences international energy symposium, Energy2050, to be held on 19-20 October 2009
Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Mikael Höök, Robert Hirsch & Kjell Aleklet Energy Policy, June 2009, 2262-2272
Oil production limits mean opportunities, conservation
Oil & Gas Journal 21st August 2006
In the face of looming oil production shortfalls, all individuals as well as nations as a whole will have to use less oil. And now is the time to begin developing programs accommodating the need for less oil. The coming shortage could provide excellent opportunities for those able to identify them and act strategically.
Mikael Höök (completing a PhD with the Global Energy Systems Group) gave a valuable presentation to the "Managing Risks in Oil and Gas Exploration Forum", Amsterdam, 4th June.
|
|
|
The Senate inquiry into Public Transport has been holding hearings around Australia.
Details of the inquiry, lists of submissions on the Senate website etc here.
ASPO-Australia made a main submission, one from ASPO-Sydney and one from the Defence and Security working group. We were invited to appear at the Perth hearing (Hansard)
As well there were individual submissions from Dave Kilsby, Garry Glazebrook, Alan Parker and Matt Mushalik (with the prize for the biggest submission, 18MB), and from the Cycling Promotion Fund and Prof. Peter Newman amongst the 142 published so far
|
| |
|
We have prepared a submission to Infrastructure Australia.
Download the full report: Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure: Submission to Infrastructure Australia.
The Executive Summary is reprinted below.
Executive SummaryWorld oil production is at or near its historic peak and will most likely begin to decline within several years. Net exports of oil available on the world market have probably entered a decline that will continue more steeply than the declining rate of production. Compounded by the impact of geopolitical circumstances, extreme weather events and other economic trends, the decline in oil availability will see dramatically increasing and highly volatile oil and fuel prices, oil supply shocks and impacts on economic growth, employment, demographics and transport patterns.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
| | << Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next > End >>
| | Results 1 - 9 of 77 |
|
|
|
Newsletters |
|
Keep up to date! Subscribe to the ASPO Newsletter.
|
|
News and Articles 
