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Chris Skrebowski's Megaprojects Update PDF Print E-mail

Oilfield MegaProjects Update

Chris Skrebowski visited Australia last year when he shared the results of his "Megaprojects" analysis of future oil production. Chris keeps a close tally of all the known major oil projects, most of which are announced 5 years in advance of production starting.

Chris Skrebowski's latest Megaproject update was published in February Petroleum Review and is now available online: http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MegaProjects_Feb2007.pdf (less than 100kb in size)

Chris notes a significant volume of new production being brought on stream between now and 2012 but not much beyond that. He also points out the growing development costs and lack of skilled personnel which may well cause project timelines to slip. Despite the apparent growth predicted for the near term, Chris concludes there is no cause for celebration. He writes:
It is only possible to draw two conclusions from this latest megaprojects analysis. First, data on production, project performance and depletion rates is wholly unsatisfactory, particularly for the Opec producers. Second, the large volumes of new capacity being added between 2007 and 2012 may not translate into the sort of increased produc- tion flows the world economy needs  to underpin economic growth.  
More on Senate report into Australia's future oil supply PDF Print E-mail
Phil Hart, Convenor of ASPO's Oil and Gas Industry Working Group, has contributed his own analysis on the report of the Senate Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply:

On Wednesday 7th February 2007, the Australian Senate received the Final Report on Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels from the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee (link to index). The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) in Australia welcomes this report and hopes that it will raise the prominence of the issue in all levels of Government policy development.
Preparing for the Petrol Droughts PDF Print E-mail
This aims to link the alarm over climate change into a warning about Peak Oil and Petrol Droughts. 

"Don't wait for oil drought -prepare for worst"   Opinion article as below, published by the West Australian 9th February 2007 (immediately under another article, "Why PM is praying for rain")
Peak Oil: Preparing for the Petrol Droughts - Scientists who warned us for ages about climate change were ignored and derided.  Now, droughts, hotter temperatures and melting glaciers are showing the warnings should have been heeded earlier and action taken. Other scientists have warned us about Peak Oil for years and they have been similarly dismissed, probably just as unwisely. Peak Oil is when the rate of global oil production changes from its current increasing trend to the unavoidable downtrend as the world’s oil fields start their overall decline phase.  We will not run out of oil, but there will be less available each year in future than there has been in the past.

Read the full article and link to references about what Australia can do to prepare.
Cartoon: Automobile dependence PDF Print E-mail

cartoon of automobile dependence

CERA "Peak Oil falls down" and rebuttals PDF Print E-mail
CERA published a "decision brief" 14th Nov 2006, "WHY THE “PEAK OIL” THEORY FALLS DOWN: MYTHS, LEGENDS, AND THE FUTURE OF OIL RESOURCES".  This is a copyright report, but was accompanied by a press release, which was widely reported. 
A related detailed version later published by SPE-JPT (Feb2007) is available here.
There were some immediate comments, in The Oil Drum.  Chris Skrebowski, of ASPO and Editor of the Petroleum Review, has now circulated an open letter to CERA's Peter Jackson.  This has been well received by a lot of ASPO folk, including Roger Bezdek, Matt Simmons, Kjell Aleklett, Jeremy Leggett and Jean Laherrère so far. 

CERA seem to have swung towards the far right of the probability curves, for reasons which are not clear.
"why issue a press release that was a polemic? Why confuse stocks (reserves) and flows (production) as though the two were interchangeable? Why list resources that are far from commercialisation as though they could be turned on in the morning?"

Michael Smith (Energyfiles.com) has added his opinion
Energy Bulletin has an article by Tom Whipple (21-Feb-2007) about CERA's rationale.
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