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Energy exploration 'hit by rising costs' PDF Print E-mail
The following news item is an example of the capacity problem now dogging the industry and to which Matt Simmons has been drawing attention for some time.

Energy exploration 'hit by rising costs'

Monday Jun 19 16:20 AEST

Energy explorers have seen exploration costs rise by more than a third over the last year posing a serious threat to the future of the industry, a peak industry body says.

At an industry conference in Darwin, chief executive of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) Belinda Robinson said exploration was also being threatened by limited equipment availability.

"In general we have seen costs increase by around 35 per cent over the past year," Ms Robinson said.

"This combined with the limited physical availability of rigs poses a serious issue for the industry."

Peter Strachan Oil pricing, Peak Oil- Darwin June 20th PDF Print E-mail
Oil Pricing – Is $60/bbl sustainable?
Assessing the past, present and future drivers to oil & gas pricing
Peter Strachan, Independent Analyst, StockAnalysis   20th June

In the short term, oil prices of around $US67 per barrel are likely, and prices can be expected to rise significantly in the longer term as supply grows tighter and demand continues to rise, analyst Peter Strachan told the South East Asia Australia Offshore Conference (SEAAOC) in Darwin.
But beyond 2012, it was unlikely that oil production would keep pace with nominal demand growth, he said.
"After 2010, the oil price is set to rise in real terms," he said.  Over the past 15 years, oil producers have failed to replace global oil and peak global oil production appears to be approaching within a decade, according to Strachan. Powerpoint presentation and notes

TOTAL CEO says peak oil by 2020 - calls for demand restraint PDF Print E-mail
News via Reuters at this link . It is interesting to heara more realistic prognostication from the head of an oil companies. So far Chevron and Total are the only big oil companies to sound the alarm about the oil supply issue.
AMSTERDAM, June 7 (Reuters) - France's Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) estimates global oil production will peak around 2020 if output growth continues at current levels and has advised governments to cool demand to avoid a supply crunch, its chief executive said.

"The capacity of raising (oil) production is a real challenge ... if we stay with this type of production growth our impression is that peak production could be reached around 2020," Thierry Desmarest told the World Gas Conference in Amsterdam on Wednesday.

If demand growth was cut to 1 percent from the nearly 2 percent experienced in recent years, the point of peak output could be postponed by 10 years, the French oil major's CEO added.


"We say to governments, it's urgent to take action plans to reduce oil demand growth," Desmarest said.

Oil crisis news from ABC radio PDF Print E-mail
Two interesting oil crisis related items from ABC radio (audio courtesy of sydneypeakoil.com ):

The first item draws a parallels and distinctions between the current oil crisis and the political oil shocks of the 70's. It features interviews with Chris Skrebowski of ODAC and Colin Campbell of ASPO Ireland .
The Oil Crisis of 1973 6:20am - Monday 8 May  2006 
The second item looks at the declining state of Australia's oil production drawing on the APPEA issues paper presented at APPEA's Queensland conference. Issues raised include energy security and logistics bottlenecks holding up new exploration. Reg Nelson from APPEA puts a positive spin on Australian oil exploration potential - though if our frontier areas are so attractive one wonders why oil companies, currently flush with cash, are not already checking them out.
Australian oil production 6:35am – Tuesday 9 May  2006

US EIA - Fading prospects for improvement in world oil supply PDF Print E-mail
The US Energy Information Agency's latest short term energy outlook is not encouraging:
The prospects for significant improvement in the world petroleum supply and demand balance appear to be fading.  While U.S. production in 2006 will grow with recovery from the hurricanes, only moderate increases in OPEC and other non-OPEC production and capacity are expected.  Steady and continued growth in world oil demand will likely combine with only modest increases in world oil production capacity leaving little room to increase production in the event of geopolitical instability.  Crude oil prices will remain high through 2007.
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